Labour Market Report January 2021

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates released at 7.00am today indicated that the unemployment rate for September-November 2020 (3.2%) decreased over the quarter by 0.5 percentage points. The economic inactivity rate (27.0%) increased over the quarter by 0.4 percentage points and the employment rate (70.6%) decreased over the quarter by 0.1 percentage points.

Key Points

• The number of people on the NI claimant count (experimental) decreased over the month to 58,400 in December 2020 but remains almost double the number recorded in March. The experimental Claimant Count includes Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants and those claimants of Universal Credit who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed.

• There were 340 proposed redundancies in December 2020. During 2020, 11,000 redundancies were proposed, the highest annual total since records began. The department was notified of 440 confirmed redundancies in December 2020 taking the number of confirmed redundancies in 2020 to 4,680, the highest annual total recorded in the last ten years.

• The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in November 2020 was 740,800, a marginal increase of less than 0.1% over the month and a decrease 1.1% over the year. The flash estimate for December shows a further increase of 0.2% on November’s figure to 742,200.

• Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £1,781 in November 2020, an increase of 0.4% over the month and 5.6% from the same time last year. The flash estimate for December shows a further 0.7% increase in earnings from November’s figure.

• The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates relate to September-November 2020 and indicate that, over the quarter, the unemployment and employment rates decreased and the economic inactivity rate increased.

• The NI unemployment rate (16+) decreased over the quarter (0.5pps) and increased over the year (0.9pps) to 3.2% in September-November 2020. Although recent changes were not statistically significant, the unemployment rate was significantly above rates at the beginning of 2020. The NI unemployment rate was below the UK rate (5.0%), the Republic of Ireland rate (7.2%) and the EU (27) rate (7.6%).

• The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) decreased over the quarter (0.1pps) and the year (2.0pps) to 70.6%. Although recent changes were not statistically significant, the employment rate was significantly above rates in 2017. The latest employment rate recorded for the whole of the UK was 75.2%.

• The NI economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) increased over the quarter (0.4pps) and the year (1.3pps) to 27.0%. The economic inactivity rate was similar to rates over the last ten years but significantly below peak rates in 2010. The NI economic inactivity rate remained above the UK rate (20.7%).
• The statistical bulletin and associated tables are available on the Labour Market Report - January 2021 page

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