Labour Market Report December 2020

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates released at 7.00am today indicated that the unemployment rate for August-October 2020 (3.9%) increased over the quarter by 0.9 percentage points. The economic inactivity rate (26.4%) decreased over the quarter by 0.9 percentage points and the employment rate (70.6%) increased over the quarter by 0.2 percentage points. Employee jobs decreased over the quarter and the year to September 2020, this is the third consecutive quarter of decline in employee jobs and the first annual decline since September 2012.

Key Points

• The number of people on the NI claimant count (experimental) increased over the month to 59,900 in November 2020. This November count is more than double the number recorded in March. The experimental Claimant Count includes Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants and those claimants of Universal Credit who were claiming principally for the reason of being unemployed.
• There were 1,370 proposed redundancies in November 2020 and 340 proposed between 1^st and 11^th December. From 1^st December 2019 to 30^th November 2020, 10,720 redundancies were proposed, the highest annual total since records began. The department was notified of 420 confirmed redundancies in November 2020. This takes the number of confirmed redundancies to 4,390 in the 12 months to the end of November.
• The number of employees receiving pay through HMRC PAYE in NI in October 2020 was 742,900, an increase of 0.1% over the month and a decrease 0.7% over the year. The flash estimate for November shows an increase of 0.1% on October’s figure to 743,400.
• Earnings from the HMRC PAYE indicated that NI employees had a median monthly pay of £1,769 in October 2020, an increase of 0.3% over the month and 5.0% from the same time last year. The flash estimate for November shows no change in earnings from October’s figure.
• The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates relate to August-October 2020 and indicate that, over the quarter, the unemployment and employment rates increased and the economic inactivity rate decreased. The NI unemployment rate (16+) increased over the quarter (0.9pps) and the year (1.6pps) to 3.9% in August-October 2020. The quarterly and annual changes were statistically significant. The NI unemployment rate was below the UK rate (4.9%), the Republic of Ireland rate (7.3%) and the EU (27) rate (7.5%).
• The proportion of people aged 16 to 64 in work (the employment rate) increased over the quarter (0.2ps) and decreased over the year (1.8pps) to 70.6%. Although recent changes were not statistically significant, the employment rate was significantly above rates in 2017. The latest employment rate recorded for the whole of the UK was 75.2%.
• The NI economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were not working and not seeking or available to work) decreased over the quarter (0.9pps) and increased over the year (0.6pps) to 26.4%. Although recent changes were not statistically significant, the economic inactivity rate was significantly below rates in 2017. The NI economic inactivity rate remained above the UK rate (20.8%).
• Employee jobs decreased over both the quarter and the year to 775,020 jobs. September 2020 marked the third consecutive quarterly decrease in employee jobs. The quarterly decline in September 2020 was driven by decreases within the manufacturing, services and ‘other’ industry sectors. The annual decrease was the first annual decline since September 2012, and was driven by decreases in the manufacturing (-2,930 jobs) and services (-2,760 jobs) sectors. The manufacturing sector has experienced five consecutive quarters of decline since the peak in June 2019.
• The statistical bulletin and associated tables are available on the Labour Market Report - December 2020 page

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