ONS released a paper detailing a new UK-wide methodology for estimating expected deaths, which is used to calculate excess deaths, at 9.30 am on 20 February 2024. The following is an information paper summarising the change in methodology and the impact to Northern Ireland estimates. There is also an extraction of the UK dataset published by ONS, that accompanied the methodology paper, containing the Northern Ireland specific data for users convenience.
20 January 2025: NISRA has released a supplementary information paper to demonstrate to users both the need for the change in methodology, and how the model-based approach has improved accuracy of estimated expected deaths.
Excess Deaths Methodology: Why the change? Information Paper
Excess Deaths - New Methodology Northern Ireland back series